The Economic Future Is Sad, Simple, & Already Obvious

The downside volatility for long-duration USTs (United States Treasuries) has surpassed that of physical gold, a phenomenon not observed in nearly 50 years.

Doesn't the preceding title appear somewhat sensational?

In light of the recent disappointment surrounding the supposed emergence of a gold-backed BRICS currency at the South African meeting this summer, it is understandable to see why some people argue that many gold enthusiasts are simply chasing and generating click-bait, similar to teenage bloggers.

The precious metals industry often gets unfairly labeled as perpetually pessimistic, with the intention of constantly driving retail trade.

Okay. Got it. Yes. I understand. We're all just promoting our book.

The existing facts are already sensational.

However, there is a key point to consider: It is not necessary to have a pessimistic or negative outlook in order to analyze bond signals, basic mathematical principles, lessons from history, current geopolitical events, or the evident trends in energy and precious metal markets using common sense.

If this is indeed the case, it becomes evident that nations are facing financial ruin, currencies are losing trust, and sovereign bonds are plummeting rapidly.

In summary, there is no need to exaggerate headlines or predict a catastrophic outcome when the existing facts and figures are already quite extraordinary.

USTs: Solitary Tears in the Corner

Foreign investors currently hold approximately $18 trillion worth of assets in the United States, with a significant portion of $7.5 trillion being in the form of US government bonds, commonly referred to as Treasury securities. These Treasury securities have faced some challenges in terms of popularity and perception in recent times.

However, the appeal of those IOUs is diminishing as the United States, burdened with an ever-growing public debt of $33 trillion and counting, aims to borrow an extra $1.9 trillion (net) by the end of 2023. Additionally, the US plans to issue an additional $5 trillion in US Treasury securities in the following year. This situation has even caused Jamie Dimon to become visibly concerned, as he finds himself pulling at his hair.

But who will purchase those IOUs? Let's be truthful.

If foreigners were to begin disposing of their existing USTs (US Treasury Securities) during an already evident US debt crisis, the resulting levels of distress, which are already being experienced both domestically and internationally, would only escalate exponentially.

This is not a fictional story, but rather a true account.

American banks, which have historically been the largest purchasers of U.S. Treasury securities (USTs), are now reducing their purchases instead of increasing them.

Hedge funds, which are currently considered minor purchasers of U.S. Treasury securities (USTs), may find themselves in situations where they become significant sellers of these unpopular obligations, potentially leading to liquidity challenges.

Mathematics is a fundamental subject that deals with numbers, quantities, and shapes. It involves various operations such as addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division, which are used to solve problems and analyze patterns. Basic math skills are essential in everyday life, from calculating expenses to understanding measurements.

Similarly, basic liquidity refers to the availability of cash or easily convertible assets to meet short-term financial obligations. It is a measure of how easily an individual or organization can access funds to cover immediate expenses or debts. Liquidity is crucial for financial stability and is often assessed through ratios like the current ratio or quick ratio.

In summary, basic math skills are necessary for various calculations and problem-solving, while basic liquidity is important for financial stability and meeting short-term financial obligations.

more dovish stance on interest rates has been well telegraphed, the market has been pricing in a higher probability of a rate cut in the near future. This has led to a decline in bond yields and an increase in stock prices. However, there are still uncertainties surrounding the global economy, such as the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, which could potentially impact the Fed's decision-making process. Overall, it will be interesting to see how the market reacts to any potential rate cuts and how the Fed navigates through these uncertain times.

The so-called war on inflation is nothing but a sham.

The Dollar is being strengthened as oil prices rise, due to factors such as declining shale production in the Permian region and Russia reducing oil exports while the US engages in negotiations with Iran. As a result, foreign holders of the $7.5 trillion worth of US Treasury securities will require liquidity to purchase more expensive oil and repay their USD-denominated debts, which are becoming increasingly costly.

The current financial situation is characterized by a liquidity crisis.

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leads to higher borrowing costs for the US government. This can have negative implications for the economy, as it becomes more expensive for the government to finance its operations and service its debt. Additionally, higher yields on US bonds can attract foreign investors away from other investments, potentially causing disruptions in global financial markets.

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Sending debt costs soaring will have dire consequences for companies, individuals, homeowners, and even governments, all of whom are already burdened with excessive debt.

The significance of this cannot be overstated, as the bond market holds immense importance. I have consistently emphasized this theme week after week, month after month, and year after year.

Are Gold Bulls Overreacting?

Once more, there will be those who argue that these straightforward calculations and unexciting signals from the credit markets are nothing more than exaggerated claims from optimistic gold enthusiasts.


that the Roman Empire was one of the most powerful and influential civilizations in history. From its founding in 753 BC to its fall in 476 AD, the Roman Empire expanded its territory through military conquest and established a vast network of roads, aqueducts, and buildings that still stand today. The Romans also made significant contributions to art, literature, philosophy, and law, leaving a lasting impact on Western civilization. Despite its eventual decline, the Roman Empire's legacy continues to shape our world today.

When a nation falls into a cycle of increasing debt, it typically leads to a series of interconnected crises. First, a currency crisis ensues, which is then followed by a social crisis. Ultimately, this results in a rise in centralization and a decline in personal and financial freedoms.

Do such things

Centralization refers to the concentration of power, authority, or decision-making in a single central entity or group. It involves the transfer of control and decision-making from local or regional levels to a central authority. This can occur in various contexts, such as government, organizations, or even technology.

In a centralized system, the central authority has the ultimate power and control over various aspects, including policy-making, resource allocation, and decision implementation. This can lead to more efficient coordination, streamlined processes, and uniformity in decision-making.

However, centralization also has its drawbacks. It can result in a lack of local autonomy and participation, as decisions are made by a few individuals or a central body. This can lead to a disconnect between the central authority and the needs and preferences of local communities or organizations. Additionally, centralization can create bottlenecks and delays in decision-making, as all decisions need to go through the central authority.

Overall, centralization can have both advantages and disadvantages, and its effectiveness depends on the specific context and the balance between central control and local autonomy.

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trends seem familiar

to anyone who is well-informed about the current

The term "Zeitgeist" refers to the spirit or general mood of a particular time period. It encompasses the prevailing attitudes, beliefs, and cultural values that shape and influence society at a given moment. The Zeitgeist can be seen as a reflection of the collective consciousness and can vary across different regions and eras. It is an important concept in understanding the social, political, and artistic movements that emerge during a specific time in history.

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So, the significance of desperate bond markets cannot be overlooked, particularly when evaluated in the context of a global reserve currency. This currency, similar to others burdened by insurmountable debts, is bound to face consequences.

the last bubble to burst

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America, once a beacon of hope and prosperity, now finds itself in a state of disarray and financial turmoil. The once strong and united nation is now fractured and struggling to stay afloat.

The economic landscape of America is crumbling, with mounting debt and a growing deficit. The government's reckless spending and inability to balance the budget has left the country on the brink of financial collapse. The American people are burdened with the consequences of this mismanagement, facing higher taxes and reduced services.

In addition to the economic crisis, America is also grappling with deep divisions and social unrest. The fabric of society is torn, with political polarization and racial tensions reaching alarming levels. The unity that once defined America seems like a distant memory, replaced by a fractured nation where citizens are pitted against each other.

The brokenness of America is evident in its failing infrastructure. Crumbling roads, bridges, and public transportation systems are a stark reminder of the neglect and lack of investment in the country's basic needs. This not only hinders economic growth but also poses a threat to the safety and well-being of its citizens.

Furthermore, America's education system is in shambles. The quality of education has declined, leaving many young Americans ill-prepared for the challenges of the future. This lack of investment in education further perpetuates the cycle of poverty and inequality, widening the gap between the haves and the have-nots.

The brokenness of America is not just a financial or social issue, but a moral one as well. The values that once defined the nation, such as equality, justice, and freedom, are being eroded. Corruption, greed, and a lack of accountability have become all too common, undermining the very foundations upon which America was built.

However, amidst the brokenness, there is still hope. America has a history of resilience and the ability to rise from the ashes. It is time for the American people to come together, to demand change and hold their leaders accountable. It is time to rebuild and restore the values that made America great.

America may be going broke, but it is not beyond repair. With determination, unity, and a commitment to the principles that once made it a shining example, America can once again rise and reclaim its place as a beacon of hope and prosperity.

The truth is clear, evident, and becoming more and more undeniable: America is making promises it cannot fulfill.

The mounting debt burdens are taking a toll on the US government, evident from the recent developments surrounding Kevin McCarthy's situation, which resembles a soap opera.

the weight of multiple crises, cannot afford to be distracted by political infighting and partisan bickering. Gaetz's statement resonated with many Americans who are tired of the constant gridlock and lack of progress in Washington. Despite his controversial reputation, Gaetz's call for unity and focus on the pressing issues facing the country struck a chord with those who are yearning for effective leadership and tangible solutions.

The process of de-dollarization and the challenges posed by debt.

, is currently experiencing financial hardship, as he describes it as being "completely broke."

Is he simply exaggerating, or should we take into account the previous math? You know, fundamental information...

There are no positive outcomes remaining.

The current state of the country, currency, and sovereign bond is dire, as it has abandoned key factors such as productivity, balanced budgets, trade surpluses, and national income in favor of accumulating an unprecedented amount of debt, twin deficits, and relying on a central bank that has taken on the role of an unnatural and ineffective portfolio manager for our struggling economy.

completely centralized markets

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For years, I have been expressing concerns about the gradual and disregarded deterioration of our credit system, likening it to a frog being slowly boiled alive. In this scenario, I have often questioned who will ultimately bear the burden of our crippling debts, especially considering the lack of private sector entities with the necessary financial strength to do so. This situation is further complicated by the influence of lobbyists on politicians.

The answer is clear, straightforward, and already apparent: The Federal Reserve.

And how will the Federal Reserve acquire the funds to cover these progressively costly debts (acknowledging Powell)?

The answer is clear, straightforward, and already evident: It materializes seemingly out of nowhere.

The Inevitable Outcome of Inflation

The inevitable monetization of historically unprecedented and poorly managed debt levels, through measures like quantitative easing (QE) and yield curve controls, will undoubtedly lead to inflation, despite any temporary mitigating factors.

Disinflationary refers to a situation where the rate of inflation is decreasing or slowing down.

events such as declining credit and equity markets.

All of these factors lead me to reiterate the ironic conclusion, which is also echoed in the St. Louis Fed's June white paper on Fiscal Dominance. It suggests that Powell's supposed battle against inflation through quantitative tightening (QT) and increasing interest rates will ultimately result in an unavoidable inflationary outcome. This inflation will manifest in the form of trillions of dollars being created with a mere click of a mouse, all in an attempt to "save" our economic system, but at the cost of devaluing our currency.

The US Treasury Department, led by Josh Frost, is currently indicating its intention to enhance the resilience and liquidity of US bonds. This is being pursued through a strategy that involves repurchasing its own IOUs, a move that some may consider less than ingenious.

In simpler terms, the Treasury Department will be consuming its own harmful Kool-Aid, as it continues to devalue its currency.


Suddenly, USDs materialized out of thin air with a single mouse-click.

Does anyone else here find this plan appealing, especially considering the ongoing decrease in the purchasing power of the US dollar?

Currently, the consensus seems to favor unintelligent or foolish gains.

However, even with the obvious and logical indications of excessive debt, the general agreement still leans towards long-term US Treasury bonds as a comparatively secure option in a globally unstable environment.

Today, the level of trust in the TLT is comparable to the level of trust placed in Captain John Smith of the supposedly unsinkable Titanic.

However, if math and history are not completely disregarded, eliminated, or overlooked, it is likely that a 15-point decrease in the TLT (interest rates) and a subsequent increase in already dangerously high rates would be the most likely result.

Why? Because there is a lack of sufficient natural demand for it.

Uncle Sam's recklessly unpaid bar tab

Apart from a mystical (and inflationary) money printer, there are other options available.

That is simply our perspective.

Soft Landing? It's a term often used to describe a controlled and gentle descent or arrival. It can be applied to various situations, such as a spacecraft landing on a planet or a plane touching down smoothly on a runway. In a broader sense, it can also refer to a smooth transition or conclusion to a project, relationship, or any other endeavor. The concept of a soft landing implies a sense of ease, grace, and minimal disruption. It suggests a positive outcome and a favorable experience. Whether it's a physical landing or a metaphorical one, a soft landing is generally preferred over a rough or abrupt one.



Despite numerous indicators pointing towards economic downturn, policy makers and their media platforms continue to promote the idea of a 'soft-landing'. This narrative is reminiscent of Pravda-like efforts, with support from various sectors including the military and media. However, bankruptcies, layoffs, yield-curves, YoY M2 growth, Fitch downgrades, and the Conference Board of Leading Economic Indicators all suggest otherwise.

Oliver Anthony sheds tears.

it was painfully obvious that

We have already experienced a hard landing.

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(Weren't these the very same 'experts' who assured us that inflation would only be temporary?)

People: The current situation is already difficult, not easy.

In August, strikes in America resulted in a total of 4.1 million lost workdays, primarily in industries such as Ford and GM. Meanwhile, numerous headlines from the Western media continue to emphasize China's role as the main problem, citing its ownership of seven out of the world's ten largest shipping ports. Consequently, these reports suggest that investing in China may be less favorable.

I'm not sure.

A problem that affects the entire world

If anything, the collective suffering of China and the USA will eventually make the challenges faced in 2008 appear relatively mild for capital markets and global economies...

The harsh truth is that currently, all western sovereign bonds are facing significant challenges. This comes at a time when China is grappling with real estate and debt bubbles, along with geopolitical shifts and disruptions in supply chains. These factors act as strong catalysts for further price inflation in American products manufactured in China.

economic trend) is going. Inflation can erode the value of cash and fixed-income investments, so we believe it is important to invest in assets that have the potential to outpace inflation. This includes assets such as stocks, real estate, and commodities, which historically have shown the ability to provide returns that outpace inflation over the long term. By investing in these assets, we aim to protect and grow our wealth in an inflationary environment.

A polo ball is a small, hard sphere used in the sport of polo.

The direction in which (it) is heading, rather than its current position, is what matters.

China is exerting its influence on the gold price, causing fluctuations in the market. The country's actions and policies have a significant impact on the global gold market, as China is the world's largest consumer and producer of gold.

One way China is changing the gold price is through its central bank's gold reserves. China has been steadily increasing its gold holdings in recent years, which has led to speculation about its intentions. The country's gold purchases can create a surge in demand, driving up the price.

Additionally, China's economic growth and stability play a crucial role in determining the gold price. As the Chinese economy expands, more people have disposable income to invest in gold, increasing demand and subsequently affecting the price. Conversely, any signs of economic instability can lead to a decrease in demand and a drop in the gold price.

China's currency, the yuan, also influences the gold price. When the yuan strengthens against other major currencies, it becomes more expensive for Chinese investors to buy gold, potentially reducing demand and impacting the price. On the other hand, a weaker yuan can make gold more affordable, increasing demand and driving up the price.

Furthermore, China's gold mining industry contributes to the gold price. The country is the largest producer of gold, and any disruptions in its mining operations, such as labor strikes or environmental concerns, can affect the global supply and subsequently impact the price.

China's role in changing the gold price is multifaceted and complex. Its actions as a consumer, producer, and investor in gold, as well as its economic stability and currency fluctuations, all contribute to the ever-changing dynamics of the global gold market.

Physical gold is undoubtedly one of the valuable assets.

China's recent actions with its assets have been truly remarkable and provide valuable insights into what we can anticipate in the future regarding debt, inflation, interest rates, currencies, and gold in the Western world.

In simpler terms, China is changing the pricing of the gold trade.

Many people who rely on traditional financial media for market data and analysis are unaware of China's covert intentions and capabilities to use gold as a weapon against the weaponized US dollar.

China's central bank has recently removed restrictions on gold imports, which were previously imposed in an attempt to protect its currency and control the outflow of USD. However, the Western press views this temporary measure as unsuccessful.

However, like many other things related to the legacy press, the true story is actually completely different...

Our group of investigative journalists in their thirties, who rely heavily on Google searches, failed to acknowledge two important facts: A) gold purchases in China are made in Yuan, not Dollars, and B) gold premiums in China have recently increased to 5%.

In summary, it appears that China's efforts to defend their currency were not unsuccessful, but rather demonstrated to the global community that their domestic policies can influence the price of gold.

The imposition of import restrictions had the unintended consequence of significantly increasing the price of gold within China. Specifically, the price rose by more than $120 per ounce compared to the London spot price.

However, after the import limits were lifted, the price spread decreased to $76 per ounce.

In simpler terms, China has demonstrated its ability to influence gold prices, which in turn affects inflation expectations, interest rates, and even the value of the US dollar.

The reason for this is that there is a distinct and evident relationship between the movement of gold from the West to the East and the pricing of gold.

Historically, the largest outflows from London occurred when the price of gold was declining. However, a significant shift has taken place recently. Contrary to previous trends, there is now a notable flow of gold towards the East, even during periods of rising gold prices. This marks a significant departure from the patterns observed over the past few decades.

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I have always held the belief that even without an officially gold-backed BRICS currency or a direct exchange of gold for oil, gas, or other tangible assets, a trade pattern that aligns with the same purpose and outcome would naturally emerge. This trade pattern is likely to lead to increased Chinese gold purchases and a decrease in the reliance on the US Dollar over time.

The ultimate outcome will be that the pricing of gold in Western markets will align with and increase to match the levels of domestic Chinese gold.

In 2014, Xu Luode, the Chairman of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, expressed the following sentiment:

The 'consumed in the East but priced in the West' arrangement of Shanghai Gold is set to revolutionize the current gold market.

The true price of gold will be unveiled once China gains the authority to participate in the global gold market.

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the beginning, the situation has escalated beyond our control. Despite our best efforts, the problem has grown exponentially and shows no signs of slowing down. We cannot stress enough the urgency of the matter at hand. It is imperative that immediate action is taken to address this issue before it spirals further out of control. We implore you to heed our warning and act swiftly to prevent any further damage or consequences.

On the first day of the severely shortsighted sanctions

If there were to be a conflict with Russia, it could potentially lead to stronger ties between Russia and China. Both countries have already expressed their dissatisfaction with the dominance of the USD in global affairs.

In case you haven't observed, Russia is currently selling essential oil to China, a country with a high demand for oil, and they are conducting these transactions in Chinese Yuan (CNY) instead of United States Dollars (USD).

With gold's purchasing power for energy being higher in China compared to the West, there will be an increased flow of this valuable metal towards Shanghai. As a result, Shanghai's influence over the pricing of gold in London is expected to rise significantly.

This outcome was easily predictable, yet the Western media tends to conceal such foreseeable facts. Ultimately, one of their major shortcomings is

The act of neglecting or failing to do something that one should have done, often resulting in negative consequences, is known as the sin of omission.

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The US-led West overlooked a crucial vulnerability, as pointed out by Luke Gromen, when they weaponized the world reserve currency against Russia. This vulnerability lies in the unallocated gold markets centered in London.

The Evolution of Battle Tactics

Throughout history, battle tactics have undergone significant changes. From ancient times to the modern era, military strategists have constantly adapted and refined their approaches to gain an advantage on the battlefield. This evolution of battle tactics has been driven by various factors, including advancements in technology, changes in warfare methods, and lessons learned from past conflicts.

In ancient times, battles were often fought in close quarters, with hand-to-hand combat being the primary method of engagement. Armies relied heavily on formations, such as the phalanx used by the ancient Greeks, to maintain cohesion and overwhelm their opponents. These tactics emphasized discipline, coordination, and the ability to withstand enemy attacks.

As warfare progressed, the introduction of ranged weapons, such as bows and arrows, catapults, and later firearms, revolutionized battle tactics. Armies began to incorporate skirmishers and archers into their ranks, allowing for long-range attacks and the ability to weaken enemy forces before engaging in close combat. This shift in tactics required greater flexibility and mobility on the battlefield.

The invention of gunpowder and the subsequent development of artillery further transformed battle tactics. Cannons and other artillery pieces allowed for devastating long-range bombardment, forcing armies to adapt by digging trenches and fortifying their positions. This marked the beginning of a more defensive approach to warfare, with an increased emphasis on fortifications and siege tactics.

The Industrial Revolution brought about even more significant changes in battle tactics. The mass production of firearms and the introduction of mechanized warfare, such as tanks and aircraft, revolutionized the way wars were fought. Armies now had to consider the use of combined arms, coordinating infantry, artillery, and armored units to achieve victory. The ability to rapidly move troops and supplies across vast distances also led to the development of new strategies, such as blitzkrieg tactics.

In recent times, advancements in technology, particularly in the field of information and communication, have further shaped battle tactics. The use of drones, satellites, and advanced surveillance systems has allowed for better situational awareness and the ability to strike targets with precision. Cyber warfare has also emerged as a new dimension of conflict, with armies now having to defend against and launch attacks in the digital realm.

In conclusion, battle tactics have continuously evolved throughout history. From ancient formations to modern-day strategies, military forces have adapted to the changing nature of warfare. Advancements in technology, changes in warfare methods, and lessons learned from past conflicts have all played a role in shaping the tactics used on the battlefield. As technology continues to advance, it is likely that battle tactics will continue to evolve to meet the challenges of future conflicts.

China and Russia are strategically altering the trench lines of the gold-for-energy battlefield, gradually and predictably leveraging gold and energy commodities as weapons against the weaponized USD.

I believe that gold will be a profitable investment in the future, and I am not the only one who shares this belief.

Simply inquire about the central banks that are accumulating physical assets.

Metal is a genre of music that is characterized by its heavy and aggressive sound. It originated in the late 1960s and early 1970s, with bands like Black Sabbath and Led Zeppelin paving the way for the genre. Metal is known for its distorted guitars, powerful drums, and intense vocals.

Over the years, metal has evolved and branched out into various subgenres, each with its own unique style and sound. Some popular subgenres include thrash metal, death metal, black metal, and power metal. These subgenres often incorporate elements from other genres, such as punk, classical, and progressive rock, resulting in a diverse and dynamic range of metal music.

Metal has a dedicated and passionate fanbase, with fans often identifying themselves as "metalheads." The genre has also had a significant impact on popular culture, influencing fashion, art, and even politics. Metal concerts and festivals are known for their energetic and intense atmosphere, with mosh pits and headbanging being common sights.

Despite its sometimes dark and aggressive image, metal music often explores deep and thought-provoking themes, such as social issues, personal struggles, and existential questions. Many metal bands use their music as a platform to express their emotions and connect with their audience on a deeper level.

Overall, metal is a powerful and influential genre of music that continues to evolve and captivate audiences around the world. Its raw energy and emotional depth make it a favorite among many music lovers, and its impact on the music industry and culture as a whole cannot be denied.

and discarding America's

The paper is a written document that contains information, ideas, or arguments on a specific topic. It is typically composed of paragraphs that are organized in a logical and coherent manner. Papers can be academic, research-based, or opinion-based, and they are often used to communicate knowledge, present findings, or persuade readers. Writing a paper requires careful planning, research, and critical thinking to ensure that the content is accurate, well-supported, and effectively presented.

The level of debt is currently at an all-time high.

Similar to the gathering of troops, cannons, horses, and supply wagons at the border, the movements of central bank gold serve as clear indications of an impending conflict for a fresh trading system. This system aims to shift away from the debt-based trading model and currency saturated with Uncle Sam's debt.

It is evident that this situation is favorable for gold. Unlike the US markets and economy, gold is a genuinely resilient asset that maintains its price strength even in the face of artificially inflated real rates and surging UST yields.

following actions were taken.

The downside volatility for long-duration USTs has surpassed that of physical gold, a phenomenon that has not been observed in nearly 50 years.

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I would like to mention...